“Better Now Than Later: The Paradox of 1914 as Everyone’s Favored Year for War,” International Security, summer 2014, reprinted in Richard N. Rosecrance and Steven E. Miller, eds., The Next Great War? The Roots of World War I and the Risk of U.S.-China Conflict (MIT, 2015), and correspondence with Jack S. Levy, “Everyone’s Favored Year for War—or Not?” International Security spring 2015, 208-217.
