The Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies presents:

Holy Smoke: The Overblown Relationship between Religion and Conflict

Paper presentation by Arman Grigoryan, Associate Professor, International Relations Department, Lehigh University

Event Details:

Date: Thursday, April 24, 2025

Time: 2pm-4pm

Location: 1219 International Affairs Building 

Abstract: 

Ever since the publication of Samuel Huntington’s (in)famous paper on the clash of civilizations, where he essentially identified civilizations with religion, there has been a growing interest in religion as a source of conflict. That interest, and particularly the interest in “Islam’s bloody borders,” only intensified following 9/11 and its aftermath. This paper examines the most prominent claims in recent academic studies and the public discourse that regard religion as an important cause of conflicts. It demonstrates that these claims are poster-children for practically the entire set of common methodological transgressions every methodology textbook is teaching to avoid. Specifically, they are undermined by problems of definition and measurement, omitted variable bias, equifinality, various types of selection biases, and endogeneity. When these transgressions are accounted for, the set of conflicts that can genuinely be called religious shrinks to near insignificance. 

Speaker Biography:

Arman Grigoryan is an Associate Professor in the International Relations Department at Lehigh University. He received his Ph.D. in political science at Columbia University. His dissertation was a study of escalatory effects of third-party interventions. He also holds an MA in international relations from the University of Chicago, and an undergraduate degree with a major in Middle Eastern Studies from the Yerevan State University in Armenia. Professor Grigoryan has published articles on interventions, ethnofederalism, the relationship between war and democracy, the irrelevance of ideology to the foreign policies of democracies, and the diplomatic behavior of revolutionary states. His publications have appeared in International Security, Security Studies, the International Studies Quarterly, the International Political Science Review, Ethnopolitics, and International Analytics [Международная Аналитика]. A compilation of Professor Grigoryan’s articles and interviews dealing with Armenian politics titled Between the Hammer of Fundamentalist Nationalism and the Anvil of Hollow Liberalism will soon be published in Armenia. Professor Grigoryan is currently working on a book, which examines weakness and vulnerability as causes of mass murder.

Campus Access:

Please be aware that access to Columbia’s campus is currently limited to active Columbia students, faculty and staff. Alumni can register for same-day access at this link.